The Antimony Squeeze Is Real, and Most Western Buyers Still Don't Have a Plan B

Antimony closed last week somewhere around $39,500 a tonne on the Rotterdam in-warehouse benchmark. Three years ago it was under $12,000. That single line tells you almost everything about why my phone keeps ringing from Frankfurt, Tokyo and Dallas.

But not quite everything. So let me fill in the rest.

How we got here, briefly

China announced export controls on antimony in August 2024, effective September 15th. Then in December came the outright ban on shipments to the United States. Tajikistan, which had quietly become the second-largest producer after a Chinese-built plant came online in 2022, ships most of its output to — guess where — China. Russia's Polyus material is essentially off the table for Western buyers under sanctions. Myanmar is Myanmar.

That leaves a very short list. Bolivia. A bit out of Turkey. Some Australian projects still years from production. And Pakistan.

Honestly, I used to think the antimony story would take longer to break. I figured Western defence primes and PV glass makers had stockpiles deeper than they actually did. I got that wrong. The calls started in October and haven't slowed.

What antimony actually does (and why nobody can substitute it quickly)

For the buyers reading this who already know — skip ahead. For everyone else, a fast recap of why this matters beyond a commodity chart.

Antimony trioxide is the backbone of flame retardants in cabling, electronics housings and military textiles. Antimony metal goes into lead-acid battery grids (still the dominant SLI battery chemistry, EV transition or not), into ammunition primers, into armour-piercing rounds, and into night-vision and infrared optics. Photovoltaic glass uses antimony to improve solar transmittance — roughly 0.1 to 0.25% by weight, which sounds tiny until you multiply it by the gigawatts of panels being built.

The US Defense Logistics Agency has antimony on its strategic stockpile list. The EU put it on the Critical Raw Materials list in 2020 and kept it there in the 2023 update. The UK followed. None of that mattered much when China was supplying 48% of global mine output and an even larger share of refined metal. It matters now.

There is no drop-in substitute for antimony in primer compositions or in armour-piercing tracer rounds. There are partial substitutes in flame retardants (aluminium trihydrate, magnesium hydroxide) but they require reformulation, retesting and recertification — which for cable manufacturers supplying European utilities can mean two to three years.

So when buyers ask me how urgent this is, I tell them: depends what you make. If you're a PV glass producer, you have flexibility on inventory. If you're a primary metal supplier to a Tier 1 defence contractor with an existing FAR-compliant supply chain, you have a problem that started six months ago.

What Gilgit-Baltistan can actually deliver

Let me be specific, because vague claims are how this sector loses credibility.

GB sits on the suture between the Indian and Eurasian plates, with the Karakoram and Kohistan arc systems running through it. Antimony mineralisation here is mostly stibnite (Sb₂S₃) in quartz vein systems, often associated with gold and sometimes tungsten — classic orogenic-style deposits. Our concession work in the Chilas-Darel belt and around Stak Nala has returned grades that, on selective vein sampling, run between 18% and 41% Sb. Bulk channel samples come in lower — that's normal — typically 4 to 9% Sb on representative widths.

For context, the global average mined grade is somewhere around 2.5 to 3% Sb. Tajik material going to the Chinese refinery averages roughly 4%. So even our bulk numbers are competitive, and the high-grade pockets are genuinely strong.

What we don't have yet at our concessions: a JORC or NI 43-101 resource estimate. We have channel sampling, trenching, and in two cases adit-level development from artisanal work going back decades. That's it. Any serious off-take buyer is going to want a proper drill programme, and we structure JVs precisely around funding that work in exchange for off-take rights or equity. I'd rather be honest about that than oversell a resource we haven't drilled.

For a buyer who needs material in 2025, the realistic path is small-tonnage shipments of hand-sorted high-grade stibnite concentrate — the kind of thing that's been moving out of Pakistan in 20-tonne lots for years to Chinese smelters. We can redirect that. For a buyer who needs 2,000+ tonnes annually of consistent concentrate from 2027 onwards, that's a JV conversation with capex on a flotation circuit and a proper mine plan.

Logistics, because this is where deals die

GB material moves down the Karakoram Highway to Islamabad, then to Karachi or Port Qasim for containerised export. It's about 1,600 km road haul to Karachi. Trucking cost runs $85 to $110 per tonne depending on season and security situation. Winter closures on the KKH between December and February are real — usually a few weeks total, not months, but plan for it.

Export licensing for antimony concentrate goes through the Ministry of Commerce and is straightforward as long as the GB mineral title and royalty payments to the GB Mines and Minerals Department are clean. We hold the titles directly. No middlemen, no nominee arrangements, which is something I'd encourage any buyer to verify before signing anything with anyone in this country — not just us.

Incoterms we typically work to: FOB Karachi for established buyers, CIF for first-time relationships where the buyer wants us carrying the freight risk. Payment against LC at sight or 30 days, depending on the relationship and tonnage.

Look, the antimony market is not going to un-tighten anytime soon. China isn't reversing its export policy. Tajik output is spoken for. New Western projects are five to eight years out at best. The question for buyers isn't whether to diversify — that decision got made for you in Beijing last year. The question is which non-Chinese sources you actually trust enough to build a relationship with, and on what terms.

Happy to get into specifics on any of the concessions if you want to email directly. The geology files and sample assay certificates we can share under NDA.